As a scrum master or product owner, you know that estimation can be tricky. One of the biggest questions often faced is, when is the right time to estimate?
Timing estimation well can lead to better planning, higher team morale, and clearer stakeholder communication.
Let’s explore when to estimate, why timing matters, and how we can align this timing with team dynamics and project needs.
Why timing matters for estimation
Have you ever noticed how an estimate changes depending on when it’s made?
Estimating too early can feel like a shot in the dark, but estimating too late might mean we’ve missed key alignment opportunities.
Timing estimation thoughtfully can directly influence the quality of our sprint planning and, ultimately, the delivery outcomes.
But what’s the ideal timing?
There’s no one-size-fits-all answer, and different stages in a project’s lifecycle might call for different approaches.
However, some patterns and practices can make a huge difference.
The different times to estimate: Breaking it down
Estimation can happen at different stages in agile. Here are some common moments to consider:
1. Backlog refinement sessions
During backlog refinement, teams review and refine items in the backlog, which makes it a perfect time for initial estimation.
Why? At this stage, stories are still flexible, and adjustments can be made.
When we estimate here, we’re in the early discovery phase, which helps us manage expectations and flag any dependencies before they become blockers.
Personal tip: I’ve found that when teams estimate in refinement, they’re more engaged and often bring up potential challenges we might not have noticed otherwise.
It’s a win-win for everyone, as the team end up with a more realistic sprint plan.
2. Sprint planning
If your team hasn’t estimated during refinement, sprint planning becomes the next best time.
Here, the work for the next sprint is already prioritised, which helps focus the estimation.
Estimating during planning gives the team clarity on what’s expected and allows us to commit realistically.
But there’s a risk: estimating only in planning can lead to rushed decisions, especially if the stories are complex.
What if a story turns out to be much bigger than expected? Last-minute adjustments can impact focus.
3. Before major releases or phases
In projects with multiple phases, like preparing for a major release, estimating before moving into each phase is crucial.
These moments call for a more detailed analysis, often with higher-level estimates.
For example, if you’re nearing the final release phase, you’ll need estimates that consider both technical and non-functional requirements.
Personal experience: Working on a phase-based project, I noticed that revisiting estimates between phases improved our accuracy and kept stakeholders better informed.
Re-estimation when necessary keeps the big picture clear and helps teams make more strategic decisions.
What are the common estimation timing pitfalls?
1. Estimating too early
Ever had a stakeholder push for an estimate before the team even understands the scope? Early estimates can feel rushed and often lack critical insights.
This can lead to inflated expectations, with stakeholders assuming your initial guess is set in stone.
In my experience, it’s helpful to communicate the limitations of early estimates and explain that they’re rough guesses rather than concrete numbers.
2. Estimating too late
Waiting until the last minute can be just as problematic. Delayed estimation limits the team’s planning options and often leads to inaccurate forecasts.
Plus, estimating under pressure can stress the team and lead to hasty decisions.
Finding a balance between early discovery and actionable planning is key.
How to know if the timing is right to estimate
So, how can we find the best time for estimation?
Start by asking the team:
- Do we understand the story enough to estimate accurately?
- Will the estimate help us plan effectively for the next sprint?
- Is now the time to commit to a specific size, or should we wait until we know more?
Estimation is more than just assigning numbers, it’s a tool for understanding and communication.
If a story is still unclear, waiting until backlog refinement might be best. For stories we’re ready to take on, estimating in planning works well.
Using estimation to strengthen team dynamics
Timing estimations well not only improves our sprint outcomes but also strengthens team dynamics.
When we estimate thoughtfully, the team feels heard, included, and better prepared for the sprint.
Estimating too early or too late can lead to unnecessary stress or confusion, so finding a rhythm that suits the team’s pace is essential.
One of my favourite moments as a scrum master is seeing a team work together to refine an estimate during a well-timed backlog refinement session.
Watching them collaborate and bring different perspectives to a story reinforces their collective ownership and confidence in the work ahead.
So, when is the right time to estimate in scrum?
The right time to estimate in scrum ultimately depends on the team, project stage, and story clarity.
Whether in backlog refinement, sprint planning, or between phases, each timing has its strengths and challenges.
Experiment with what works best for your team and remain open to adjustments.
As a scrum master, you play a crucial role in guiding these conversations and helping our teams find their rhythm.
Estimation, when timed right, becomes a powerful tool for clarity, collaboration, and success.
Wondering if you should estimate or time-box a spike? Here’s the best practice to follow when dealing with spikes.
I hope you found this post helpful.
